钞票换股票最佳时机

期货投资 Futures - 庄婷婷小姐



1. 高消费时代，大学生必须学会投资。
2. 美国，平均牛市50个月。2009-2015牛市已80个月。
3. World debt to GDP ratio is higher than 2009.
4. 期货的重要性 -
    a) 对冲 一 must hold shares worth RM85K or hold all 30 index stocks
    b) 护盘 一
5. Terminology n features
   a) 1 point= RM50
   b) Buy = long
   c) Sell = short
6. 交易2大重点
   a) 亏损最小化
   b) 盈利最大化
7. 3种方法
   a) stop loss 止损点
   b) 风险：回酬 - 筛选机会
   c) 向 tips 说不
8. 期货不可加码
9. 1997 - KLCI dropped from 1300 - 389 -70%
    2000 - 1021 to 547 -46%
   2008 - 1524 to 723 -47%
10. 期货长期投资=1星期



钞票换股票 - 黄俊华



1. Oil & gas = 17% of export. E&E 36%
2. 最佳时机
    a) 市场情绪指标转上 - 70% equity 30% cash
    b) 慎选优质股
    c) 止损 - 保本投资
3. 选股
    a) 业绩稳健／创新高
    b) 股价走势 -look for side ways/down
    c) 业绩成长潛能
4. 浮云迭起 - 升则守、跌则走 support point



何启斌博士 Dr Hoo Ke Peng



1. 大公信贷为大马降级 - negative outlook
    a) political instability
    b) real property bubble
    c) US rate hike n dampened world growth
    d) compressed external liquidity - the world will be short of US$
2. RM vs US$
   a) 1998 - from 2.52 to 5.03 (just 10 seconds) - 50%
   b) 2015 - from 3.24 to 4.19 - 20%
3. 15 year MGS at 4.79%. Increase will be gradual
4. Dollar index - drop
5. US$ liquidity will be tight
6. China - corporate bond market - no bubble risk
7. Russia attacking Syria - protected warfare 持久战. Price of oil will go up
8. KLCI will be at 1750
9. 54 MP seats are from Felda settlement. Valuecap will support FGV. IPO at RM4.30



18.10.2015



Philip Capital's View - 20.10.2015

1. Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98

1. Economy fell into recession for 2 years
2. ringgit plummeted by 46%
3. 10.8% contraction in the GDP
4. 78% plunge in the KLCI.

2. 2008/09 Lehman Brothers Crisis 

1. economy fell into recession for nearly a year
2. GDP contracted by 5.7%
3. KLCI nosedived by 42%
4. ringgit declined by 12% against the US$

3. 2015

1. Economy is expected to grow at 4.5-5.5%
2. 8% fall in KLCI as at end-Sept
3. there is no sign of recession