Challenging
times ahead - by Anthony Das of AmBank on 11.12.2015
1. Near term moderate global outlook.
2. Global trade is slowing down. Cyclical issue outweighs structural issue. Geopolitical risk becomes greater. IS n Syria. 2016 may see strong war - to divert attention.
3. 2016-19
a) US - 4 trillion in system cf 0.8-1.2 trillion
b) EU - ECB stimulus not strong enough.
c) Japan in recession
d) China - income distribution.
Ginni coefficient - 0.5. If it is high, more rich people. If 0, no poor people. Volume of usage of steel n other material has gone up.
e) India - 8% growth
f) Malaysia - household debt 88%
4. Positive on retail, tourism, education, healthcare.
5. Negative on construction.
6. Real challenge - interest rate policy
US n UK tightening
Euro n Japan - stimulus
China - easing
7. Expect gradual appreciation of Yuan in 2016.
8. By 2032, Malaysia will be aging country.
9. 55% at SPM level. 66 universities, 80 private schools.
1. Near term moderate global outlook.
2. Global trade is slowing down. Cyclical issue outweighs structural issue. Geopolitical risk becomes greater. IS n Syria. 2016 may see strong war - to divert attention.
3. 2016-19
a) US - 4 trillion in system cf 0.8-1.2 trillion
b) EU - ECB stimulus not strong enough.
c) Japan in recession
d) China - income distribution.
Ginni coefficient - 0.5. If it is high, more rich people. If 0, no poor people. Volume of usage of steel n other material has gone up.
e) India - 8% growth
f) Malaysia - household debt 88%
4. Positive on retail, tourism, education, healthcare.
5. Negative on construction.
6. Real challenge - interest rate policy
US n UK tightening
Euro n Japan - stimulus
China - easing
7. Expect gradual appreciation of Yuan in 2016.
8. By 2032, Malaysia will be aging country.
9. 55% at SPM level. 66 universities, 80 private schools.
